CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
8-14 | Road
94
UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
8-14 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
CP By 1-7 points
21.6%
CP By 8-14 points
10.7%
UCR By 1-7 points
27.2%
UCR By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
92
CAL POLY
UC Riverside
95
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
62
CAL POLY
UC Riverside
70
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CP @ UCR
94 - 87
Dec 6, 2025
UCR @ CP
88 - 84
Mar 13, 2025
CP @ UCR
96 - 83
Feb 22, 2025
UCR @ CP
100 - 112
Feb 1, 2025
CP @ UCR
62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+77.7% more
UC Riverside: 4.0
vs
Cal Poly: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.5% more
Cal Poly: 17.1
vs
UC Riverside: 13.3
Assists (L5)
+18.3% more
Cal Poly: 16.5
vs
UC Riverside: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.9%
Cal Poly: 81.9%
vs
UC Riverside: 71.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
92.0
94
UCR Score
95.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.1 / 33.4
40.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.5
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.0 / 2.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 46.8
47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 81.9
65.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 34.9
41.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.9
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 17.1
18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
CP
UCR
CP
ML
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
75%
24-8
58%
19-14
ATS
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
58%
19-14
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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