CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
11-10 | Road
54
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
18-2 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
COUGARS
100%
BEARCATS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
CIN By 8-14 points
20.1%
HOU By 1-7 points
21.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
68
CINCINNATI
Houston
65
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
68
CINCINNATI
Houston
60
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CIN @ HOU
54 - 76
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ CIN
67 - 60
Mar 1, 2025
CIN @ HOU
64 - 73
Feb 27, 2024
CIN @ HOU
59 - 67
Feb 10, 2024
HOU @ CIN
67 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.4% more
Cincinnati: 10.8
vs
Houston: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+12.2% more
Cincinnati: 15.4
vs
Houston: 13.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
Cincinnati: 36.3
vs
Houston: 32.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.6%
Houston: 37.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 25.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
68.0
54
HOU Score
65.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 25.2
35.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.5 / 15.4
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 40.3
45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
84.1 / 75.1
83.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 36.3
30.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.0
9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.8
4.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CIN
HOU
CIN
ML
70%
26-11
67%
22-11
68%
23-11
74%
23-8
ATS
70%
26-11
64%
21-12
68%
23-11
74%
23-8
TTL
59%
22-15
67%
22-11
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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