WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
11-10 | Road
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
11-9 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
WKU By 1-7 points
26.8%
WKU By 8-14 points
24.3%
MTSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
MTSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Kentucky
93
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Middle Tennessee
87
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Western Kentucky
71
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Middle Tennessee
75
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hilltoppers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
MTSU @ WKU
80 - 82
Jan 31, 2026
WKU @ MTSU
65 - 60
Feb 15, 2025
MTSU @ WKU
87 - 77
Jan 18, 2025
WKU @ MTSU
57 - 71
Mar 15, 2024
MTSU @ WKU
54 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Western Kentucky: 5.8
vs
Middle Tennessee: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.8%
Western Kentucky: 76.7%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 63.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
Western Kentucky: 38.7
vs
Middle Tennessee: 34.1
Blocks (L5)
+33.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.6
vs
Western Kentucky: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WKU Score
93.0
65
MTSU Score
87.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 31.7
21.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.8 / 10.7
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.5
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 35.2
40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 76.7
55.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 38.7
42.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.1 / 5.8
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.4
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
WKU
MTSU
WKU
ML
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
69%
22-10
66%
21-11
ATS
75%
24-8
53%
17-15
69%
22-10
66%
21-11
TTL
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
