Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Skyhawks FDU @ STO

FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

KNIGHTSFDU

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57
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Merkert Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

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58
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
SKYHAWKS
0%
KNIGHTS --
SKYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Stonehill)
KnightsFDU (-3.5) 0 SkyhawksSTO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

2.3%

Skyhawks Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STO -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)

FDU By 1-7 points

1.7%

FDU By 8-14 points

0.3%

STO By 1-7 points

8.0%

STO By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
60
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
80
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
68
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
72
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Skyhawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Skyhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Skyhawks (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Skyhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o130.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u130.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 STO @ FDU 58 - 74
Jan 29, 2026 FDU @ STO 57 - 58
Mar 5, 2025 STO @ FDU 56 - 71
Feb 27, 2025 STO @ FDU 69 - 82
Jan 26, 2025 FDU @ STO 65 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +213.7% more
Stonehill: 3.9 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 1.2
Turnovers (L5) +81.6% more
Stonehill: 15.0 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 8.3
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Stonehill: 13.4 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Stonehill: 37.5 vs Fairleigh Dickinson: 32.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FDU Score 60.0 57
STO Score 80.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.1 / 29.3 27.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.5 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.2 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 41.0 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 77.5 77.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 32.2 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.3 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 8.3 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FDU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
STO Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FDU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
STO Advantage
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0% Total +/-: -2.5
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
FDU
STO
FDU
ML
45% 15-18
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
74% 23-8
ATS
39% 13-20
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
74% 23-8
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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