Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Eagles UNA @ FGCU

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

6-12  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Alico Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

8-13  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
LIONS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

30.9%

Eagles Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FGCU +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FGCU)

UNA By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNA By 8-14 points

23.0%

FGCU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FGCU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
NORTH ALABAMA
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
70
NORTH ALABAMA
78
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 58 - 69
Jan 29, 2026 UNA @ FGCU 64 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 FGCU @ UNA 72 - 55
Jan 9, 2025 UNA @ FGCU 70 - 75
Feb 3, 2024 FGCU @ UNA 69 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.0% more
North Alabama: 4.8 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 3.6
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
North Alabama: 6.3 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
North Alabama: 71.3% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 66.3%
Assists (L5) +42.2% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 12.9 vs North Alabama: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 74.0 64
FGCU Score 69.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 29.5 39.0 / 20.0
Assists 12.9 / 9.1 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 44.7 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 66.3 / 71.3 91.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 27.9 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.3 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.8 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA Advantage
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
UNA
FGCU
UNA
ML
58% 19-14
43% 13-17
67% 22-11
57% 16-12
ATS
61% 20-13
60% 18-12
67% 22-11
57% 16-12
TTL
61% 20-13
63% 19-11
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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