VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-15 | Road
56
THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
6-15 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
KEYDETS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VMI -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
VMI By 1-7 points
0.0%
VMI By 8-14 points
0.3%
CIT By 1-7 points
0.0%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
103
VMI
The Citadel
61
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
VMI
68
VMI
The Citadel
75
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
VMI @ CIT
56 - 80
Jan 17, 2026
CIT @ VMI
82 - 68
Mar 7, 2025
CIT @ VMI
62 - 73
Feb 8, 2025
CIT @ VMI
70 - 82
Jan 18, 2025
VMI @ CIT
75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.9% more
VMI: 5.7
vs
The Citadel: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.6%
VMI: 71.5%
vs
The Citadel: 65.9%
Assists (L5)
+35.5% more
The Citadel: 14.0
vs
VMI: 10.4
Turnovers (L5)
+21.8% more
The Citadel: 11.4
vs
VMI: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
103.0
56
CIT Score
61.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 34.5
45.0 / 31.0
Assists
14.0 / 10.4
21.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.0 / 1.8
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 40.3
46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 71.5
47.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 27.9
43.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.7
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 9.3
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
CIT
Advantage
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
VMI
CIT
VMI
ML
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
84%
27-5
ATS
62%
20-12
50%
16-16
64%
21-12
84%
27-5
TTL
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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