Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Wizards MIL @ WSH

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

18-27  |  Road

99
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

11-34  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
BUCKS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Washington)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

15.9%

Wizards Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIL By 1-7 points

10.7%

MIL By 8-14 points

3.3%

WSH By 1-7 points

23.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
95
MILWAUKEE
105
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
108
MILWAUKEE
125
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 MIL @ WSH 99 - 109
Dec 31, 2025 WSH @ MIL 114 - 113
Dec 1, 2025 MIL @ WSH 126 - 129
Oct 22, 2025 WSH @ MIL 120 - 133
Feb 21, 2025 MIL @ WSH 104 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +101.3% more
Washington: 12.1 vs Milwaukee: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +70.9% more
Washington: 7.6 vs Milwaukee: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +13.0%
Washington: 83.6% vs Milwaukee: 70.7%
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Washington: 14.3 vs Milwaukee: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 95.0 99
WSH Score 105.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 39.0 23.0 / 26.0
Assists 26.9 / 27.0 21.0 / 25.0
Blocks 7.6 / 4.4 7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 46.9 40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 70.7 89.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 42.0 61.0 / 43.0
Steals 12.1 / 6.0 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 13.0 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
70% 112-49
64% 61-35
47% 39-44
60% 49-32
ATS
69% 111-49-1
68% 65-31
47% 39-44
60% 49-32
TTL
74% 119-41-1
55% 53-43
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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