LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
9-11 | Road
63
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
13-7 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
TIGERS
0%
TROJANS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNST -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
LR By 1-7 points
0.1%
LR By 8-14 points
0.0%
TNST By 1-7 points
0.6%
TNST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
61
LITTLE ROCK
Tennessee State
93
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Tennessee State
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
LR @ TNST
63 - 70
Jan 3, 2026
TNST @ LR
84 - 79
Jan 30, 2025
TNST @ LR
72 - 70
Jan 4, 2025
LR @ TNST
86 - 95
Feb 29, 2024
TNST @ LR
60 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.8% more
Tennessee State: 9.0
vs
Little Rock: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+11.7% more
Tennessee State: 10.7
vs
Little Rock: 9.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Tennessee State: 49.1%
vs
Little Rock: 43.8%
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Little Rock: 5.3
vs
Tennessee State: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
61.0
63
TNST Score
93.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 39.5
33.0 / 27.0
Assists
13.6 / 15.9
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.3
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 43.8
48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 79.7
61.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 32.9
38.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.9
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 9.6
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
LR
TNST
LR
ML
52%
16-15
52%
16-15
63%
17-10
68%
17-8
ATS
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
64%
18-10
68%
17-8
TTL
52%
16-15
58%
18-13
100%
28-0
100%
25-0
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