UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
13-7 | Road
62
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
15-6 | Home
48
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
TRITONS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSB By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCSB By 8-14 points
8.0%
UCSD By 1-7 points
27.2%
UCSD By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
87
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC San Diego
92
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UCSD @ UCSB
64 - 63
Jan 29, 2026
UCSB @ UCSD
62 - 48
Mar 14, 2025
UCSB @ UCSD
51 - 69
Jan 23, 2025
UCSB @ UCSD
63 - 77
Dec 5, 2024
UCSD @ UCSB
84 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.8% more
UC San Diego: 3.5
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+25.6% more
UC San Diego: 40.1
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 32.0
Steals (L5)
+21.1% more
UC San Diego: 7.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.3%
UC Santa Barbara: 44.4%
vs
UC San Diego: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
87.0
62
UCSD Score
92.0
48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 44.4
31.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.6 / 16.9
7.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.3
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 53.1
36.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 73.9
58.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 32.0
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.8
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 10.2
19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
UCSB
UCSD
UCSB
ML
56%
19-15
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
72%
23-9
ATS
50%
17-17
62%
20-12
65%
22-12
72%
23-9
TTL
62%
21-13
47%
15-17
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
