LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-13 | Road
61
UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
7-14 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
HIGHLANDERS
0%
BEACH
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
LBSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
LBSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
UCR By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCR By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
70
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Riverside
71
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
69
LONG BEACH STATE
UC Riverside
73
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
LBSU @ UCR
61 - 71
Jan 15, 2026
UCR @ LBSU
73 - 88
Feb 20, 2025
LBSU @ UCR
66 - 87
Jan 2, 2025
UCR @ LBSU
76 - 60
Mar 14, 2024
UCR @ LBSU
67 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.6% more
UC Riverside: 13.4
vs
Long Beach State: 11.8
Blocks (L5)
+10.9% more
UC Riverside: 3.5
vs
Long Beach State: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
UC Riverside: 32.5
vs
Long Beach State: 30.0
Steals (L5)
+25.4% more
Long Beach State: 6.2
vs
UC Riverside: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
70.0
61
UCR Score
71.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 36.5
21.0 / 20.0
Assists
11.7 / 15.7
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 46.7
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 80.1
67.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 30.0
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.2
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.8
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
LBSU
UCR
LBSU
ML
66%
21-11
55%
17-14
75%
24-8
65%
20-11
ATS
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
75%
24-8
65%
20-11
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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