Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Tommies UND @ STMN

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

12-12  |  Road

81
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Lee & Penny Anderson Arena
View Odds Details →

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

17-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
📊
TOMMIES
100%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
TOMMIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (North Dakota)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 TommiesSTMN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

99.9%

Tommies Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UND -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

UND By 1-7 points

1.1%

UND By 8-14 points

4.8%

STMN By 1-7 points

0.1%

STMN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NORTH DAKOTA
55
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tommies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Tommies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UND @ STMN 67 - 66
Jan 29, 2026 UND @ STMN 81 - 80
Jan 15, 2026 STMN @ UND 91 - 80
Mar 8, 2025 UND @ STMN 69 - 85
Feb 27, 2025 UND @ STMN 71 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
North Dakota: 9.6 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +20.7% more
North Dakota: 3.0 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
North Dakota: 45.4% vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 39.4%
Assists (L5) +48.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 15.0 vs North Dakota: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 85.0 81
STMN Score 55.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 45.4 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.0 / 10.1 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 47.7 49.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 72.5 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 33.7 34.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 8.3 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
UND
STMN
UND
ML
64% 21-12
44% 15-19
64% 21-12
50% 17-17
ATS
70% 23-10
50% 17-17
64% 21-12
50% 17-17
TTL
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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