CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
7-14 | Road
104
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-13 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CP By 1-7 points
21.6%
CP By 8-14 points
27.4%
CSUB By 1-7 points
9.3%
CSUB By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
81
CAL POLY
Cal State Bakersfield
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
64
CAL POLY
Cal State Bakersfield
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
CSUB @ CP
76 - 108
Jan 29, 2026
CP @ CSUB
104 - 79
Mar 1, 2025
CSUB @ CP
72 - 98
Jan 30, 2025
CP @ CSUB
90 - 81
Mar 2, 2024
CSUB @ CP
68 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.8% more
Cal Poly: 16.2
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 10.7
Assists (L5)
+25.8% more
Cal Poly: 12.8
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 9.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Cal Poly: 42.7%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 38.2%
Blocks (L5)
+209.6% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 4.2
vs
Cal Poly: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
81.0
104
CSUB Score
70.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.3 / 30.7
42.0 / 39.0
Assists
9.5 / 12.8
14.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.2 / 1.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
38.2 / 42.7
47.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 72.8
50.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 33.4
29.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.3
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 16.2
17.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
CP
CSUB
CP
ML
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
58%
19-14
ATS
61%
19-12
64%
21-12
71%
22-9
58%
19-14
TTL
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
