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UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

18-3  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 9:00 PM ET
SECU Arena
View Odds Details →

TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

12-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
SEAHAWKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
SeahawksUNCW (-3.5) 0 TigersTOW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

65.5%

Tigers Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCW -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

UNCW By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNCW By 8-14 points

21.6%

TOW By 1-7 points

20.1%

TOW By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
63
UNC WILMINGTON
59
TOWSON
Simulated Score
68
UNC WILMINGTON
72
TOWSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seahawks (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 UNCW @ TOW 82 - 73
Jan 2, 2025 TOW @ UNCW 65 - 61
Mar 10, 2024 TOW @ UNCW 66 - 56
Mar 2, 2024 TOW @ UNCW 64 - 75
Jan 6, 2024 UNCW @ TOW 64 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.0% more
UNC Wilmington: 11.4 vs Towson: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +11.8% more
UNC Wilmington: 2.6 vs Towson: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
UNC Wilmington: 45.0% vs Towson: 39.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
UNC Wilmington: 32.4% vs Towson: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score 63.0 82
TOW Score 59.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 32.4 19.0 / 39.0
Assists 8.8 / 11.4 10.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.6 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 45.0 50.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 68.4 70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 37.1 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.2 1.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.0 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
TOW
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
TOW
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOW
UNCW
TOW
UNCW
ML
66% 21-11
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
52% 17-16
ATS
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
52% 17-16
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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