Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Ragin' Cajuns GAST @ UL

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

9-12  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

5-16  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
PANTHERS --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Georgia State)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

99.4%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GAST -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

GAST By 1-7 points

3.3%

GAST By 8-14 points

10.7%

UL By 1-7 points

0.5%

UL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
GEORGIA STATE
57
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA STATE
73
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o129.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u129.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GAST @ UL 75 - 84
Jan 29, 2026 GAST @ UL 72 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 UL @ GAST 70 - 94
Feb 7, 2024 GAST @ UL 78 - 69
Jan 7, 2023 GAST @ UL 70 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.5% more
Georgia State: 8.1 vs Louisiana: 5.9
Rebounding (L5) +22.4% more
Georgia State: 33.3 vs Louisiana: 25.9
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Georgia State: 9.9 vs Louisiana: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Georgia State: 80.6% vs Louisiana: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 82.0 72
UL Score 57.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 37.5 50.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.3 / 13.5 15.0 / 5.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.4 / 42.4 50.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 80.6 81.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 25.9 / 33.3 37.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.9 / 8.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 9.9 11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
UL Advantage
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
UL Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
GAST
UL
GAST
ML
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
ATS
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
TTL
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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