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SIU EDWARDSVILLE

COUGARSSIUE

13-8  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Ellis T. Johnson Arena
View Odds Details →

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

11-10  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
COUGARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
CougarsSIUE (-3.5) 0 EaglesMORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

95.5%

Eagles Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIUE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)

SIUE By 1-7 points

12.2%

SIUE By 8-14 points

23.0%

MORE By 1-7 points

3.3%

MORE By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
46
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
68
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
75
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u130.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u130.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 SIUE @ MORE 65 - 67
Jan 3, 2026 MORE @ SIUE 73 - 72
Feb 20, 2025 SIUE @ MORE 80 - 62
Jan 25, 2025 MORE @ SIUE 54 - 65
Mar 7, 2024 SIUE @ MORE 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
SIU Edwardsville: 5.1 vs Morehead State: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +16.3% more
Morehead State: 12.3 vs SIU Edwardsville: 10.5
Blocks (L5) +13.3% more
Morehead State: 5.4 vs SIU Edwardsville: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Morehead State: 74.4% vs SIU Edwardsville: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIUE Score 63.0 65
MORE Score 46.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 33.6 33.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.0 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 44.9 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 70.5 71.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 34.8 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.4 / 5.1 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.5 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIUE
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIUE
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -4.5
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
SIUE
MORE
SIUE
ML
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
60% 18-12
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
60% 18-12
TTL
53% 17-15
48% 15-16
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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