WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
14-6 | Road
76
ELON
PHOENIXELON
12-9 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
PHOENIX
100%
TRIBE
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
21.6%
W&M By 8-14 points
27.4%
ELON By 1-7 points
9.3%
ELON By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
92
WILLIAM & MARY
Elon
81
ELON
Simulated Score
William & Mary
69
WILLIAM & MARY
Elon
73
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o169.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u169.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
ELON @ W&M
62 - 72
Feb 14, 2026
ELON @ W&M
81 - 78
Jan 29, 2026
W&M @ ELON
76 - 79
Feb 22, 2025
W&M @ ELON
79 - 70
Jan 9, 2025
ELON @ W&M
65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.4% more
William & Mary: 4.6
vs
Elon: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+28.5% more
William & Mary: 20.3
vs
Elon: 14.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.5% more
William & Mary: 35.4
vs
Elon: 32.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
William & Mary: 75.9%
vs
Elon: 68.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
92.0
76
ELON Score
81.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 36.5
42.0 / 37.0
Assists
14.5 / 20.3
14.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 45.3
49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
68.9 / 75.9
64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 35.4
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.8
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.1
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
ELON
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
W&M
ELON
W&M
ML
61%
19-12
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
61%
19-12
ATS
55%
17-14
63%
19-11-1
71%
22-9
61%
19-12
TTL
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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