FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
14-7 | Road
65
MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
9-10 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
TIGERS
100%
OWLS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
FAU By 1-7 points
27.2%
FAU By 8-14 points
20.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
21.6%
MEM By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida Atlantic
81
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Memphis
78
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Florida Atlantic
74
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Memphis
78
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Owls (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
FAU @ MEM
65 - 92
Jan 11, 2026
MEM @ FAU
78 - 89
Feb 23, 2025
FAU @ MEM
65 - 84
Jan 2, 2025
MEM @ FAU
90 - 62
Mar 9, 2024
MEM @ FAU
84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Florida Atlantic: 46.8%
vs
Memphis: 43.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Florida Atlantic: 32.2%
vs
Memphis: 28.8%
Steals (L5)
+35.9% more
Memphis: 8.7
vs
Florida Atlantic: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+29.9% more
Memphis: 15.0
vs
Florida Atlantic: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAU Score
81.0
65
MEM Score
78.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 32.2
41.0 / 27.0
Assists
13.1 / 13.3
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.5
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 46.8
51.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 68.1
89.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 36.5
35.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.4
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 11.6
13.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
MEM
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
MEM
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
FAU
MEM
FAU
ML
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
68%
21-10
66%
21-11
ATS
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
66%
21-11
TTL
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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