Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Blue Raiders LIB @ MTSU

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

17-3  |  Road

81
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

11-8  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
FLAMES --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

42.1%

Blue Raiders Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

LIB By 1-7 points

23.0%

LIB By 8-14 points

12.2%

MTSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
LIBERTY
84
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
70
LIBERTY
78
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 LIB @ MTSU 81 - 65
Mar 6, 2025 LIB @ MTSU 86 - 81
Jan 4, 2025 MTSU @ LIB 63 - 73
Mar 5, 2024 LIB @ MTSU 61 - 69
Feb 8, 2024 MTSU @ LIB 53 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +74.6% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.9 vs Liberty: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +50.3% more
Middle Tennessee: 11.8 vs Liberty: 7.8
Rebounding (L5) +24.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 34.6 vs Liberty: 27.7
Steals (L5) +43.0% more
Liberty: 8.2 vs Middle Tennessee: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 82.0 81
MTSU Score 84.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 42.4 33.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.7 / 17.3 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 50.2 43.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 71.2 63.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 27.7 33.0 / 23.0
Steals 4.7 / 8.2 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 7.8 11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
MTSU Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
LIB
MTSU
LIB
ML
56% 18-14
50% 17-17
69% 22-10
53% 18-16
ATS
75% 24-8
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
53% 18-16
TTL
53% 17-15
41% 14-20
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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