WASHINGTON
HUSKIESWASH
11-9 | Road
66
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
17-3 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
HUSKIES
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WASH -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)
WASH By 1-7 points
4.0%
WASH By 8-14 points
12.2%
ILL By 1-7 points
0.6%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
79
WASHINGTON
Illinois
55
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Washington
70
WASHINGTON
Illinois
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Huskies (-12.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
WASH @ ILL
66 - 75
Jan 5, 2025
ILL @ WASH
81 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+56.2% more
Washington: 6.0
vs
Illinois: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+9.9% more
Washington: 10.2
vs
Illinois: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Illinois: 78.8%
vs
Washington: 69.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Illinois: 40.1%
vs
Washington: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WASH Score
79.0
66
ILL Score
55.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 33.3
33.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.5 / 14.2
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.7
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 43.8
43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 69.6
63.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 36.6
34.0 / 34.0
Steals
2.6 / 6.0
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 10.2
5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
ILL
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -0.5
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
WASH
ILL
WASH
ML
65%
24-13
45%
15-18
57%
20-15
66%
21-11
ATS
70%
26-11
48%
16-17
57%
20-15
66%
21-11
TTL
57%
21-16
70%
23-10
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
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