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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

28-19  |  Road

118
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-27  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

27.4%

Mavericks Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
120
MINNESOTA
114
DALLAS
Simulated Score
110
MINNESOTA
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 MIN @ DAL 124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026 DAL @ MIN 111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025 DAL @ MIN 96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025 MIN @ DAL 115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.8% more
Minnesota: 7.6 vs Dallas: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Minnesota: 18.9 vs Dallas: 14.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Dallas: 47.3% vs Minnesota: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 120.0 118
DAL Score 114.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 37.5 17.0 / 35.0
Assists 25.6 / 25.4 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.2 / 7.6 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 44.7 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 74.1 67.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 46.8 / 49.7 50.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.5 / 9.0 6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 18.9 19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
62% 63-39
54% 63-53
54% 44-37
54% 50-43
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 67-49
54% 44-37
54% 50-43
TTL
59% 60-41-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 81-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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