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NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

15-6  |  Road

58
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Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
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BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

8-13  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
📊
TERRIERS
100%
MIDSHIPMEN --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Navy)
MidshipmenNAVY (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Midshipmen Cover

95.5%

Terriers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAVY -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-7 points

12.2%

NAVY By 8-14 points

23.0%

BU By 1-7 points

3.3%

BU By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
NAVY
70
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
65
NAVY
68
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Midshipmen Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Midshipmen (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 BU @ NAVY 73 - 72
Jan 28, 2026 NAVY @ BU 58 - 50
Dec 31, 2025 BU @ NAVY 77 - 82
Mar 6, 2025 NAVY @ BU 86 - 78
Feb 5, 2025 NAVY @ BU 65 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.7% more
Navy: 17.6 vs Boston University: 14.2
Steals (L5) +17.6% more
Navy: 6.4 vs Boston University: 5.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Navy: 37.6 vs Boston University: 32.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Navy: 41.7% vs Boston University: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 87.0 58
BU Score 70.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 41.7 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.2 / 17.6 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.0 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 51.0 38.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 73.3 67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 37.6 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.4 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.6 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
BU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
NAVY
BU
NAVY
ML
68% 23-11
79% 26-7
62% 21-13
55% 18-15
ATS
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
62% 21-13
55% 18-15
TTL
65% 22-12
73% 24-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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