PORTLAND
PILOTSPORT
10-12 | Road
51
PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
14-8 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
TIGERS
100%
PILOTS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)
PORT By 1-7 points
15.3%
PORT By 8-14 points
25.3%
PAC By 1-7 points
4.8%
PAC By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
76
PORTLAND
Pacific
61
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
Portland
72
PORTLAND
Pacific
75
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pilots
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pilots (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
PORT @ PAC
51 - 74
Jan 8, 2026
PAC @ PORT
89 - 90
Feb 22, 2025
PORT @ PAC
81 - 73
Jan 16, 2025
PAC @ PORT
81 - 84
Feb 1, 2024
PORT @ PAC
65 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.8% more
Portland: 2.7
vs
Pacific: 1.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.3%
Portland: 79.9%
vs
Pacific: 66.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Pacific: 13.4
vs
Portland: 10.8
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Pacific: 37.3
vs
Portland: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PORT Score
76.0
51
PAC Score
61.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 34.7
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.2 / 14.6
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.7
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 43.1
51.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 79.9
69.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 32.8
37.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.8
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 10.8
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
PAC
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.0
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
PORT
PAC
PORT
ML
45%
15-18
48%
16-17
80%
24-6
82%
27-6
ATS
55%
18-15
67%
22-11
80%
24-6
82%
28-6
TTL
58%
19-14
55%
18-15
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
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