OAKLAND
GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK
12-10 | Road
74
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
13-8 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
0%
MASTODONS
100%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
--
MASTODONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
OAKLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Oakland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OAK -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OAK)
OAK By 1-7 points
13.7%
OAK By 8-14 points
24.3%
PFW By 1-7 points
4.0%
PFW By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Oakland
88
OAKLAND
Purdue Fort Wayne
72
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
Oakland
70
OAKLAND
Purdue Fort Wayne
76
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mastodons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Grizzlies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Mastodons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
OAK @ PFW
74 - 65
Dec 3, 2025
PFW @ OAK
92 - 101
Feb 21, 2025
OAK @ PFW
66 - 80
Jan 22, 2025
PFW @ OAK
72 - 76
Mar 7, 2024
PFW @ OAK
65 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+14.2% more
Oakland: 3.1
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Oakland: 17.6
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 15.3
Steals (L5)
+12.2% more
Oakland: 8.0
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Oakland: 49.9%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 47.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OAK Score
88.0
74
PFW Score
72.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 35.9
32.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.3 / 17.6
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.1
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 49.9
35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 75.0
57.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 33.5
34.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.0
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 8.5
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
PFW
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OAK
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.0
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
OAK
PFW
OAK
ML
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
74%
23-8
59%
19-13
ATS
62%
20-12
50%
16-16
74%
23-8
59%
19-13
TTL
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
