Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Hens @ Aggies DEL @ NMSU

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

5-14  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

10-9  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HENS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BLUE HENS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (New Mexico State)
Blue HensDEL (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Hens Cover

8.1%

Aggies Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

DEL By 1-7 points

5.8%

DEL By 8-14 points

1.4%

NMSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

NMSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
53
DELAWARE
67
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
65
DELAWARE
70
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 DEL @ NMSU 73 - 64
Jan 17, 2026 NMSU @ DEL 97 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +37.0% more
New Mexico State: 40.3 vs Delaware: 29.5
Blocks (L5) +35.3% more
New Mexico State: 3.0 vs Delaware: 2.2
Steals (L5) +24.7% more
New Mexico State: 4.8 vs Delaware: 3.8
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
New Mexico State: 12.8 vs Delaware: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 53.0 73
NMSU Score 67.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 38.7 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.8 / 10.6 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 44.2 41.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 65.5 75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 29.5 29.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.8 / 3.8 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.1 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
DEL
NMSU
DEL
ML
61% 19-12
45% 14-17
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
ATS
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
TTL
45% 14-17
65% 20-11
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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