Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bruins @ Beacons BEL @ VAL

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

18-3  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

10-10  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
BEACONS
0%
BRUINS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Valparaiso)
BruinsBEL (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

9.7%

Beacons Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

BEL By 1-7 points

6.8%

BEL By 8-14 points

1.7%

VAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

VAL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
BELMONT
75
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
78
BELMONT
72
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beacons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beacons (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bruins (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 BEL @ VAL 78 - 77
Jan 13, 2026 VAL @ BEL 74 - 78
Feb 12, 2025 BEL @ VAL 86 - 101
Jan 14, 2025 VAL @ BEL 64 - 71
Mar 7, 2024 VAL @ BEL 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.9% more
Belmont: 16.2 vs Valparaiso: 10.9
Blocks (L5) +26.0% more
Belmont: 3.9 vs Valparaiso: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Belmont: 11.8 vs Valparaiso: 10.2
Steals (L5) +12.7% more
Belmont: 6.7 vs Valparaiso: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BEL Score 62.0 78
VAL Score 75.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 40.1 33.0 / 46.0
Assists 10.9 / 16.2 11.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 51.5 43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 70.6 76.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 33.5 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.7 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.8 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
BEL
VAL
BEL
ML
48% 16-17
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
ATS
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
TTL
61% 20-13
44% 14-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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