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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

10-10  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

13-7  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

34.5%

Tigers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LSU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

MSST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MSST By 8-14 points

21.6%

LSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

LSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MISSISSIPPI STATE
61
LSU
Simulated Score
70
MISSISSIPPI STATE
76
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 MSST @ LSU 80 - 66
Mar 12, 2025 LSU @ MSST 62 - 91
Mar 1, 2025 LSU @ MSST 69 - 81
Mar 14, 2024 MSST @ LSU 70 - 60
Feb 24, 2024 MSST @ LSU 87 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.3% more
Mississippi State: 4.5 vs LSU: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Mississippi State: 12.5 vs LSU: 10.2
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Mississippi State: 38.7 vs LSU: 34.2
Steals (L5) +40.0% more
LSU: 5.8 vs Mississippi State: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 65.0 80
LSU Score 61.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 22.6 20.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.1 / 10.0 7.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.5 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 39.2 43.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 66.8 52.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 38.7 24.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.8 / 4.1 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.5 7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
MSST
LSU
MSST
ML
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
ATS
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
TTL
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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