Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hilltoppers @ Owls WKU @ KENN

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

11-9  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
KSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

OWLSKENN

12-8  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
📊
OWLS
100%
HILLTOPPERS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HilltoppersWKU (-3.5) 0 OwlsKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hilltoppers Cover

34.5%

Owls Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KENN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

WKU By 1-7 points

27.4%

WKU By 8-14 points

21.6%

KENN By 1-7 points

20.1%

KENN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
93
WESTERN KENTUCKY
89
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
73
WESTERN KENTUCKY
78
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hilltoppers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 KENN @ WKU 96 - 87
Jan 28, 2026 WKU @ KENN 69 - 72
Jan 17, 2026 KENN @ WKU 81 - 65
Feb 6, 2025 WKU @ KENN 69 - 76
Jan 11, 2025 KENN @ WKU 69 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
Western Kentucky: 13.0 vs Kennesaw State: 10.1
Blocks (L5) +200.5% more
Kennesaw State: 6.7 vs Western Kentucky: 2.2
Assists (L5) +38.1% more
Kennesaw State: 15.3 vs Western Kentucky: 11.0
Steals (L5) +20.2% more
Kennesaw State: 6.3 vs Western Kentucky: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 93.0 69
KENN Score 89.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 35.6 44.0 / 24.0
Assists 15.3 / 11.0 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 6.7 / 2.2 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 38.3 43.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 71.1 63.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 38.0 40.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 13.0 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
KENN Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
KENN
15-16-1 (48.4%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
WKU
KENN
WKU
ML
74% 25-9
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
ATS
71% 24-10
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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