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CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

15-5  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

8-12  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
GOLDEN BEARS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Florida State)
Golden BearsCAL (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Bears Cover

2.3%

Seminoles Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

CAL By 1-7 points

1.7%

CAL By 8-14 points

0.3%

FSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

FSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
60
CALIFORNIA
80
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
70
CALIFORNIA
75
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 CAL @ FSU 89 - 95
Jan 28, 2026 CAL @ FSU 61 - 63
Jan 22, 2025 FSU @ CAL 68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Florida State: 7.1 vs California: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
Florida State: 4.0 vs California: 3.2
Assists (L5) +11.5% more
Florida State: 13.4 vs California: 12.0
Turnovers (L5) +10.6% more
Florida State: 11.7 vs California: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 60.0 61
FSU Score 80.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 37.3 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.0 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.2 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 42.6 37.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 79.5 52.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 34.9 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.5 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.6 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
CAL
FSU
CAL
ML
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
77% 24-7
ATS
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
78% 25-7
TTL
48% 16-17
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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