ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
6-13 | Road
64
TEXAS SOUTHERN
TIGERSTXSO
5-13 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
TIGERS
0%
HORNETS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Texas Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXSO -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)
ALST By 1-7 points
0.4%
ALST By 8-14 points
0.0%
TXSO By 1-7 points
2.7%
TXSO By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama State
61
ALABAMA STATE
Texas Southern
87
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
Alabama State
62
ALABAMA STATE
Texas Southern
70
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
ALST @ TXSO
64 - 96
Mar 13, 2025
ALST @ TXSO
84 - 79
Jan 27, 2025
TXSO @ ALST
80 - 69
Jan 29, 2024
ALST @ TXSO
55 - 56
Jan 23, 2023
TXSO @ ALST
71 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.9% more
Texas Southern: 14.5
vs
Alabama State: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Texas Southern: 72.8%
vs
Alabama State: 69.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Texas Southern: 39.4%
vs
Alabama State: 36.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Texas Southern: 48.6%
vs
Alabama State: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALST Score
61.0
64
TXSO Score
87.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 36.8
41.0 / 17.0
Assists
14.5 / 11.5
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.6
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 46.6
52.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 69.3
85.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 33.6
40.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 15.9
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
TXSO
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
TXSO
9-19-0
(32.1%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
ALST
TXSO
ALST
ML
64%
18-10
65%
20-11
71%
17-7
76%
19-6
ATS
61%
17-11
65%
20-11
71%
17-7
76%
19-6
TTL
71%
20-8
52%
16-15
100%
24-0
100%
25-0
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