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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

18-2  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 6:30 PM ET
Jersey Mike’s Arena
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG

9-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
SPARTANS --
SCARLET KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Michigan State)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 Scarlet KnightsRUTG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

99.5%

Scarlet Knights Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

MSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

RUTG By 1-7 points

0.4%

RUTG By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
MICHIGAN STATE
62
RUTGERS
Simulated Score
65
MICHIGAN STATE
72
RUTGERS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Scarlet Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Scarlet Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 RUTG @ MSU 87 - 91
Jan 27, 2026 MSU @ RUTG 88 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 MSU @ RUTG 81 - 74
Jan 14, 2024 RUTG @ MSU 55 - 73
Feb 4, 2023 MSU @ RUTG 55 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +48.9% more
Michigan State: 19.1 vs Rutgers: 9.8
Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
Michigan State: 54.5% vs Rutgers: 40.4%
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
Michigan State: 36.4 vs Rutgers: 32.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Michigan State: 37.9% vs Rutgers: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 88.0 88
RUTG Score 62.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 37.9 37.0 / 36.0
Assists 9.8 / 19.1 11.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 54.5 40.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 69.2 83.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 36.4 22.0 / 45.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.0 8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.4 5.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
RUTG
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
RUTG
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
MSU
RUTG
MSU
ML
53% 18-16
71% 25-10
70% 23-10
61% 20-13
ATS
68% 23-11
71% 25-10
70% 23-10
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 18-16
49% 17-18
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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