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MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

14-6  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

13-6  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
TIGERS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Alabama)
TigersMIZ (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

3.6%

Crimson Tide Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

MIZ By 1-7 points

2.7%

MIZ By 8-14 points

0.5%

ALA By 1-7 points

10.7%

ALA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MISSOURI
77
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
70
MISSOURI
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 MIZ @ ALA 64 - 90
Feb 19, 2025 ALA @ MIZ 98 - 110
Jan 16, 2024 MIZ @ ALA 75 - 93
Mar 11, 2023 MIZ @ ALA 61 - 72
Jan 21, 2023 ALA @ MIZ 85 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.0% more
Alabama: 4.5 vs Missouri: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Alabama: 40.1 vs Missouri: 36.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.7% more
Missouri: 12.1 vs Alabama: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Missouri: 75.5% vs Alabama: 70.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 59.0 64
ALA Score 77.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 31.9 38.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.3 / 12.3 19.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 45.3 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 75.5 88.0 / 35.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 36.4 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.9 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 12.1 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
MIZ
ALA
MIZ
ML
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
ATS
60% 21-14
70% 23-10
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
TTL
63% 22-13
79% 26-7
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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