WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
25-21-7 | Road
1
SEATTLE
KRAKENSEA
23-19-9 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Philipp Grubauer
#31 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 5.00 | 0.844 | -- |
| Philipp Grubauer | None-None | 1.00 | 0.950 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.844
Save %
Ldr 0.950
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
KRAKEN
100%
CAPITALS
--
KRAKEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
SEA By 1 goal
12.1%
SEA By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Seattle
2
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kraken
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kraken (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Kraken (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
WSH @ SEA
1 - 5
Oct 21, 2025
SEA @ WSH
1 - 4
Mar 9, 2025
SEA @ WSH
2 - 4
Jan 23, 2025
WSH @ SEA
3 - 0
Mar 14, 2024
WSH @ SEA
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+27.5% more
Washington: 30.0
vs
Seattle: 21.8
Power Play % (L5)
+10.6%
Washington: 22.2%
vs
Seattle: 11.6%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.0%
Washington: 52.4%
vs
Seattle: 49.4%
Hits (L5)
+26.2% more
Seattle: 18.7
vs
Washington: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
1
SEA Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.6 / 17.9
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
49.4 / 52.4
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
18.7 / 14.8
15.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
11.6 / 22.2
25.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
21.8 / 30.0
32.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 4.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
WSH
SEA
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
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