BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
29-17-5 | Road
7
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
24-19-9 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 9.81 | 0.600 | -- |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
9.81
GAA
--
0.600
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SABRES
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BUF By 1 goal
6.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
3.7%
TOR By 1 goal
17.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
1
BUFFALO
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
TOR @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026
BUF @ TOR
7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
BUF @ TOR
3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025
TOR @ BUF
3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
TOR @ BUF
4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+32.0% more
Toronto: 29.0
vs
Buffalo: 22.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+19.0%
Toronto: 55.8%
vs
Buffalo: 36.8%
Hits (L5)
+15.3% more
Toronto: 23.3
vs
Buffalo: 20.2
Power Play % (L5)
+13.8%
Toronto: 19.0%
vs
Buffalo: 5.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
1.0
7
TOR Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 14.3
13.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
55.8 / 36.8
67.3 / 32.7
Hits
23.3 / 20.2
32.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
19.0 / 5.3
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.0 / 22.0
23.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 5.5
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BUF
TOR
BUF
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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