PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
17-3 | Road
67
INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
13-7 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
HOOSIERS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
--
HOOSIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
PUR By 1-7 points
16.9%
PUR By 8-14 points
26.2%
IU By 1-7 points
5.8%
IU By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
73
PURDUE
Indiana
59
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Purdue
69
PURDUE
Indiana
78
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Boilermakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoosiers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Boilermakers (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Hoosiers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
IU @ PUR
64 - 93
Jan 27, 2026
PUR @ IU
67 - 72
Feb 23, 2025
PUR @ IU
58 - 73
Jan 31, 2025
IU @ PUR
76 - 81
Feb 10, 2024
IU @ PUR
59 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.6% more
Purdue: 19.0
vs
Indiana: 14.0
Steals (L5)
+18.3% more
Purdue: 5.2
vs
Indiana: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Purdue: 51.3%
vs
Indiana: 44.6%
Blocks (L5)
+159.6% more
Indiana: 3.7
vs
Purdue: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
73.0
67
IU Score
59.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 34.6
36.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.0 / 19.0
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 51.3
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
85.9 / 78.4
74.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 27.1
28.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.2 / 5.2
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.9 / 6.5
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
IU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
PUR
IU
PUR
ML
66%
21-11
67%
26-13
71%
22-9
66%
25-13
ATS
53%
17-15
64%
25-14
71%
22-9
66%
25-13
TTL
56%
18-14
51%
20-19
100%
31-0
100%
38-0
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