Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Timberwolves GS @ MIN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

26-21  |  Road

83
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 9:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

27-19  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WARRIORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Timberwolves Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

13.7%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
109
GOLDEN STATE
110
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
122
GOLDEN STATE
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.5% more
Minnesota: 17.4 vs Golden State: 12.9
Blocks (L5) +32.6% more
Minnesota: 6.3 vs Golden State: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Minnesota: 46.6 vs Golden State: 40.6
Steals (L5) +46.3% more
Golden State: 13.8 vs Minnesota: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 109.0 83
MIN Score 110.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 35.7 40.0 / 23.0
Assists 23.5 / 30.9 29.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.8 10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.0 46.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 82.4 77.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 40.6 56.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.4 / 13.8 12.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 12.9 22.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GS
MIN
GS
ML
54% 63-53
55% 95-79
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 67-49
58% 101-73
54% 50-43
58% 49-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
77% 134-40
100% 93-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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