COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
34-6-9 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
24-18-9 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mackenzie Blackwood
#39 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | None-None | 1.00 | 0.970 | -- |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.970
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
AVALANCHE
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around COL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1 goal
12.1%
COL By 2-3 goals
37.2%
TOR By 1 goal
2.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Colorado
2
COLORADO
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Avalanche
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Avalanche (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
COL @ TOR
4 - 1
Jan 12, 2026
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Mar 19, 2025
COL @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 8, 2025
TOR @ COL
4 - 7
Feb 24, 2024
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+28.7% more
Colorado: 38.0
vs
Toronto: 27.1
Takeaways (L5)
+26.4% more
Colorado: 5.2
vs
Toronto: 3.8
Hits (L5)
+43.5% more
Toronto: 20.9
vs
Colorado: 14.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.3%
Toronto: 55.8%
vs
Colorado: 49.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
5.0
4
TOR Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.0 / 12.3
16.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
55.8 / 49.5
55.9 / 44.1
Hits
20.9 / 14.6
28.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
11.9 / 6.3
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 38.0
33.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 5.2
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
COL
TOR
COL
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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