Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Panthers ALST @ PV

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

5-13  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 5:30 PM ET
William Nicks Building
View Odds Details →

PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

PANTHERSPV

8-11  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
HORNETS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Prairie View A&M)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 PanthersPV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

0.8%

Panthers Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PV -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PV)

ALST By 1-7 points

0.6%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.1%

PV By 1-7 points

4.0%

PV By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
ALABAMA STATE
98
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
Simulated Score
64
ALABAMA STATE
71
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 ALST @ PV 95 - 80
Jan 25, 2025 PV @ ALST 63 - 66
Jan 27, 2024 ALST @ PV 74 - 67
Jan 21, 2023 PV @ ALST 55 - 56
Jan 22, 2022 ALST @ PV 67 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.4% more
Prairie View A&M: 4.8 vs Alabama State: 4.0
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
Prairie View A&M: 13.7 vs Alabama State: 12.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Prairie View A&M: 35.6% vs Alabama State: 30.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Prairie View A&M: 75.3% vs Alabama State: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 74.0 95
PV Score 98.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 30.2 27.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.7 / 12.3 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 43.9 43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 71.5 88.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 36.5 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.7 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 16.8 23.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
PV Advantage
19-18-0 (51.3%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
PV Advantage
22-10-0 (68.8%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
PV
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PV
ALST
PV
ALST
ML
59% 20-14
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
76% 19-6
ATS
56% 19-15
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
76% 19-6
TTL
50% 17-17
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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