CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
9-12 | Road
93
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
7-13 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
TITANS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Cal State Fullerton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUF -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)
CSUF By 1-7 points
2.2%
CSUF By 8-14 points
8.0%
CP By 1-7 points
0.3%
CP By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Fullerton
98
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Cal Poly
71
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Cal State Fullerton
74
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Cal Poly
68
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Titans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Titans (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Titans (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u172.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u172.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
CSUF @ CP
93 - 78
Dec 4, 2025
CP @ CSUF
94 - 91
Mar 6, 2025
CSUF @ CP
61 - 100
Feb 13, 2025
CP @ CSUF
98 - 83
Feb 22, 2024
CP @ CSUF
50 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.1% more
Cal State Fullerton: 3.3
vs
Cal Poly: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
Cal State Fullerton: 9.5
vs
Cal Poly: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+31.6% more
Cal State Fullerton: 15.6
vs
Cal Poly: 10.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Cal State Fullerton: 45.4%
vs
Cal Poly: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score
98.0
93
CP Score
71.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.5 / 27.4
35.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.7 / 15.6
17.0 / 20.0
Blocks
1.5 / 3.3
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 45.4
44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 71.2
73.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 32.1
40.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.5
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 12.7
19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF
Advantage
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
CSUF
CP
CSUF
ML
58%
19-14
68%
23-11
58%
19-14
76%
26-8
ATS
64%
21-12
68%
23-11
58%
19-14
76%
26-8
TTL
61%
20-13
59%
20-14
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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