Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Mavericks LAL @ DAL

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

26-17  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-26  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
LAKERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

65.5%

Mavericks Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

DAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
123
LOS ANGELES
119
DALLAS
Simulated Score
108
LOS ANGELES
117
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.0 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 LAL @ DAL 128 - 134
Feb 12, 2026 DAL @ LAL 104 - 124
Jan 24, 2026 LAL @ DAL 116 - 110
Nov 28, 2025 DAL @ LAL 119 - 129
Oct 15, 2025 DAL @ LAL 121 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Los Angeles: 74.6% vs Dallas: 72.8%
Turnovers (L5) +32.8% more
Dallas: 16.5 vs Los Angeles: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +20.2% more
Dallas: 48.7 vs Los Angeles: 40.5
Assists (L5) +12.4% more
Dallas: 27.4 vs Los Angeles: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 123.0 116
DAL Score 119.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 37.3 34.0 / 41.0
Assists 27.4 / 24.4 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.2 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 48.0 41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 74.6 76.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 48.7 / 40.5 43.0 / 57.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.4 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 12.4 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
LAL
DAL
LAL
ML
62% 63-39
61% 68-43
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
ATS
67% 68-34
61% 67-43-1
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 60-41-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 81-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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