DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
10-10 | Road
76
INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
9-11 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
SYCAMORES
0%
BULLDOGS
--
SYCAMORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indiana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)
DRKE By 1-7 points
20.1%
DRKE By 8-14 points
9.3%
INST By 1-7 points
27.4%
INST By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Drake
77
DRAKE
Indiana State
81
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
Drake
75
DRAKE
Indiana State
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sycamores
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sycamores (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
DRKE @ INST
76 - 62
Jan 4, 2026
INST @ DRKE
72 - 74
Feb 8, 2025
INST @ DRKE
81 - 85
Jan 18, 2025
DRKE @ INST
71 - 53
Mar 10, 2024
DRKE @ INST
84 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.2% more
Indiana State: 16.5
vs
Drake: 12.2
Turnovers (L5)
+21.0% more
Indiana State: 13.5
vs
Drake: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Indiana State: 49.5%
vs
Drake: 44.5%
Steals (L5)
+25.0% more
Drake: 6.2
vs
Indiana State: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DRKE Score
77.0
76
INST Score
81.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 35.2
22.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.5 / 12.2
18.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 44.5
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 67.1
59.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 38.4
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.2
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 11.2
18.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DRKE
Advantage
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
DRKE
INST
DRKE
ML
66%
21-11
59%
20-14
53%
17-15
38%
13-21
ATS
62%
20-12
85%
29-5
53%
17-15
38%
13-21
TTL
53%
17-15
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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