WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
11-8 | Road
58
SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
12-7 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
BEARKATS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
--
BEARKATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WKU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
WKU By 1-7 points
1.1%
WKU By 8-14 points
4.8%
SHSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SHSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Kentucky
83
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Sam Houston
53
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Western Kentucky
68
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Sam Houston
75
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hilltoppers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearkats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hilltoppers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Bearkats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.0
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u157.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WKU @ SHSU
58 - 73
Jan 2, 2026
SHSU @ WKU
91 - 102
Feb 20, 2025
SHSU @ WKU
78 - 62
Jan 25, 2025
WKU @ SHSU
75 - 66
Feb 1, 2024
SHSU @ WKU
79 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+18.7% more
Western Kentucky: 2.8
vs
Sam Houston: 2.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Western Kentucky: 69.1%
vs
Sam Houston: 66.2%
Assists (L5)
+61.5% more
Sam Houston: 19.5
vs
Western Kentucky: 12.1
Turnovers (L5)
+22.7% more
Sam Houston: 12.3
vs
Western Kentucky: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WKU Score
83.0
58
SHSU Score
53.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 35.8
35.0 / 35.0
Assists
19.5 / 12.1
20.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.8
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 38.9
49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 69.1
40.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 38.0
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.3
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.0
9.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
WKU
SHSU
WKU
ML
55%
18-15
56%
18-14
74%
23-8
66%
21-11
ATS
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
74%
23-8
66%
21-11
TTL
48%
16-17
56%
18-14
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
