FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
8-11 | Road
80
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
14-5 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
SEMINOLES
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
FSU By 1-7 points
0.6%
FSU By 8-14 points
3.3%
SMU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SMU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida State
97
FLORIDA STATE
SMU
65
SMU
Simulated Score
Florida State
70
FLORIDA STATE
SMU
75
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Seminoles (-11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
SMU @ FSU
78 - 91
Jan 24, 2026
FSU @ SMU
80 - 83
Mar 8, 2025
SMU @ FSU
69 - 76
Dec 16, 2023
SMU @ FSU
68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.5% more
Florida State: 7.7
vs
SMU: 6.6
Turnovers (L5)
+9.2% more
Florida State: 13.6
vs
SMU: 12.3
Assists (L5)
+40.3% more
SMU: 17.0
vs
Florida State: 12.1
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
SMU: 4.5
vs
Florida State: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FSU Score
97.0
80
SMU Score
65.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 31.6
33.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.0 / 12.1
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 42.8
44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 75.5
74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 33.9
38.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.6 / 7.7
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 13.6
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
SMU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
FSU
SMU
FSU
ML
59%
20-14
64%
21-12
73%
24-9
59%
19-13
ATS
62%
21-13
55%
18-15
73%
24-9
59%
19-13
TTL
56%
19-15
48%
16-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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