ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
13-7 | Road
81
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
8-12 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
PANTHERS
100%
RED WOLVES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
ARST By 1-7 points
24.3%
ARST By 8-14 points
26.8%
GAST By 1-7 points
12.2%
GAST By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
81
ARKANSAS STATE
Georgia State
72
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
68
ARKANSAS STATE
Georgia State
73
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Wolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Wolves (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
ARST @ GAST
81 - 82
Jan 18, 2025
GAST @ ARST
59 - 85
Dec 30, 2023
ARST @ GAST
90 - 91
Feb 18, 2023
GAST @ ARST
70 - 75
Mar 5, 2022
ARST @ GAST
62 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.0% more
Arkansas State: 16.8
vs
Georgia State: 12.8
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Arkansas State: 14.7
vs
Georgia State: 11.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Arkansas State: 45.1%
vs
Georgia State: 40.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Arkansas State: 35.9%
vs
Georgia State: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
81.0
81
GAST Score
72.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 35.9
44.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.8 / 16.8
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.0 / 45.1
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 73.9
91.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 40.7
21.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.1
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 14.7
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
ARST
GAST
ARST
ML
56%
18-14
48%
15-16
71%
22-9
53%
16-14
ATS
59%
19-13
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
53%
16-14
TTL
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
