GEORGETOWN
HOYASGTWN
9-10 | Road
81
PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
9-10 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
100%
FRIARS
0%
HOYAS
--
FRIARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
GTWN By 1-7 points
13.7%
GTWN By 8-14 points
4.8%
PROV By 1-7 points
25.3%
PROV By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgetown
88
GEORGETOWN
Providence
96
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
Georgetown
76
GEORGETOWN
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Friars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoyas
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Friars (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Hoyas (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
PROV @ GTWN
79 - 80
Jan 24, 2026
GTWN @ PROV
81 - 78
Feb 19, 2025
PROV @ GTWN
72 - 93
Jan 25, 2025
GTWN @ PROV
68 - 78
Mar 13, 2024
GTWN @ PROV
56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.3% more
Providence: 3.5
vs
Georgetown: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+22.3% more
Providence: 15.1
vs
Georgetown: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+8.3% more
Providence: 39.9
vs
Georgetown: 36.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Providence: 48.3%
vs
Georgetown: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score
88.0
81
PROV Score
96.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 34.0
38.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.1 / 12.4
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.4
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 40.6
46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 72.6
86.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 36.8
33.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.3 / 4.8
2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.1
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN
Advantage
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.4
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
GTWN
PROV
GTWN
ML
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
67%
20-10
73%
22-8
ATS
50%
16-16
58%
19-14
67%
20-10
73%
22-8
TTL
44%
14-18
58%
19-14
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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