Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Shockers MEM @ WICH

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

9-9  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 4:00 PM ET
Charles Koch Arena
View Odds Details →

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

12-8  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
SHOCKERS
100%
TIGERS --
SHOCKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Memphis)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 ShockersWICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

88.5%

Shockers Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

20.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

27.2%

WICH By 1-7 points

8.0%

WICH By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MEMPHIS
53
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
70
MEMPHIS
75
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Shockers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Shockers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WICH @ MEM 88 - 82
Jan 24, 2026 MEM @ WICH 59 - 74
Mar 14, 2025 WICH @ MEM 80 - 83
Feb 16, 2025 MEM @ WICH 79 - 84
Jan 23, 2025 WICH @ MEM 53 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.8% more
Memphis: 8.6 vs Wichita State: 5.6
Assists (L5) +27.3% more
Memphis: 15.6 vs Wichita State: 11.4
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Memphis: 14.0 vs Wichita State: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Memphis: 44.2% vs Wichita State: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 65.0 59
WICH Score 53.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 35.2 35.0 / 16.0
Assists 11.4 / 15.6 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 44.2 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 66.6 63.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 44.7 / 36.2 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.6 / 8.6 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 14.0 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
MEM
WICH
MEM
ML
61% 22-14
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
ATS
64% 23-13
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
TTL
69% 25-11
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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