Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Lions TNST @ LIN

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

12-7  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Hyland Arena
View Odds Details →

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

12-8  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
TIGERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 LionsLIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

99.7%

Lions Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

1.7%

TNST By 8-14 points

6.8%

LIN By 1-7 points

0.2%

LIN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
TENNESSEE STATE
65
LINDENWOOD
Simulated Score
74
TENNESSEE STATE
68
LINDENWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 LIN @ TNST 80 - 89
Jan 24, 2026 TNST @ LIN 96 - 86
Mar 6, 2025 LIN @ TNST 55 - 69
Feb 8, 2025 LIN @ TNST 76 - 84
Jan 9, 2025 TNST @ LIN 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Tennessee State: 31.4% vs Lindenwood: 25.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Tennessee State: 74.9% vs Lindenwood: 71.3%
Turnovers (L5) +89.3% more
Lindenwood: 16.1 vs Tennessee State: 8.5
Steals (L5) +34.0% more
Lindenwood: 10.7 vs Tennessee State: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 93.0 96
LIN Score 65.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.3 / 31.4 42.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.3 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 43.7 50.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 74.9 91.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 37.4 27.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.7 / 8.0 11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 8.5 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIN
TNST
LIN
TNST
ML
47% 15-17
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
63% 17-10
ATS
34% 11-21
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
64% 18-10
TTL
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 8 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 2 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 8 hours ago