Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Cavaliers UNC @ UVA

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

15-4  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 12:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

16-2  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
TAR HEELS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

34.5%

Cavaliers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UNC By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNC By 8-14 points

21.6%

UVA By 1-7 points

20.1%

UVA By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
NORTH CAROLINA
70
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
63
NORTH CAROLINA
70
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 UNC @ UVA 85 - 80
Feb 22, 2025 UVA @ UNC 66 - 81
Feb 24, 2024 UNC @ UVA 54 - 44
Mar 9, 2023 UNC @ UVA 59 - 68
Feb 25, 2023 UVA @ UNC 63 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
North Carolina: 5.8 vs Virginia: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
North Carolina: 50.5% vs Virginia: 43.9%
Blocks (L5) +61.7% more
Virginia: 5.8 vs North Carolina: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Virginia: 11.5 vs North Carolina: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 74.0 85
UVA Score 70.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 36.3 30.0 / 45.0
Assists 17.5 / 16.4 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.8 / 3.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 50.5 45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 65.9 70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 38.3 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.8 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 9.9 11.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
UNC
UVA
UNC
ML
67% 24-12
76% 25-8
72% 26-10
69% 22-10
ATS
75% 27-9
73% 24-9
72% 26-10
69% 22-10
TTL
53% 19-17
55% 18-15
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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