ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
16-3 | Road
88
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
17-2 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
195.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
ILL By 1-7 points
18.6%
ILL By 8-14 points
8.0%
PUR By 1-7 points
27.2%
PUR By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
95
ILLINOIS
Purdue
100
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Illinois
72
ILLINOIS
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 195.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
ILL @ PUR
88 - 82
Mar 7, 2025
PUR @ ILL
80 - 88
Mar 5, 2024
PUR @ ILL
77 - 71
Jan 5, 2024
ILL @ PUR
78 - 83
Mar 5, 2023
ILL @ PUR
71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+72.1% more
Purdue: 6.7
vs
Illinois: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+25.2% more
Purdue: 19.0
vs
Illinois: 15.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Purdue: 48.4%
vs
Illinois: 44.7%
Blocks (L5)
+63.2% more
Illinois: 4.4
vs
Purdue: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
95.0
88
PUR Score
100.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 36.6
37.0 / 47.0
Assists
19.0 / 15.2
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.6 / 4.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 44.7
57.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 81.7
82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
31.1 / 42.3
19.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.7 / 3.9
2.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 8.8
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
ILL
PUR
ILL
ML
67%
26-13
65%
24-13
66%
25-13
57%
20-15
ATS
64%
25-14
70%
26-11
66%
25-13
57%
20-15
TTL
51%
20-19
57%
21-16
100%
38-0
100%
35-0
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