ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
14-6 | Road
69
BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
17-3 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
BRUINS
0%
REDBIRDS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Belmont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BEL -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)
ILST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ILST By 8-14 points
0.0%
BEL By 1-7 points
0.1%
BEL By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
68
ILLINOIS STATE
Belmont
106
BELMONT
Simulated Score
Illinois State
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Belmont
75
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
BEL @ ILST
74 - 81
Jan 24, 2026
ILST @ BEL
69 - 80
Mar 7, 2025
ILST @ BEL
63 - 76
Jan 29, 2025
BEL @ ILST
78 - 81
Dec 4, 2024
ILST @ BEL
97 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+86.6% more
Belmont: 4.9
vs
Illinois State: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+32.9% more
Belmont: 6.6
vs
Illinois State: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+32.6% more
Belmont: 14.8
vs
Illinois State: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Belmont: 48.3%
vs
Illinois State: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
68.0
69
BEL Score
106.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 34.6
56.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.8 / 11.2
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 45.0
58.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 78.1
62.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 38.3
27.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.6 / 4.9
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 12.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BEL
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
ILST
BEL
ILST
ML
47%
15-17
42%
15-21
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
ATS
56%
18-14
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
TTL
44%
14-18
58%
21-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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