Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Ospreys BELL @ UNF

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

7-12  |  Road

114
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 11:00 AM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

4-16  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
OSPREYS
100%
KNIGHTS --
OSPREYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Bellarmine)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 OspreysUNF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

100.0%

Ospreys Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BELL -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.0%

BELL By 8-14 points

0.1%

UNF By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNF By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
105
BELLARMINE
60
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
70
BELLARMINE
75
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ospreys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Ospreys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 BELL @ UNF 114 - 117
Feb 6, 2025 BELL @ UNF 88 - 95
Jan 11, 2025 UNF @ BELL 98 - 83
Jan 25, 2024 UNF @ BELL 71 - 63
Feb 27, 2023 BELL @ UNF 76 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
Bellarmine: 5.8 vs North Florida: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +17.3% more
Bellarmine: 1.6 vs North Florida: 1.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Bellarmine: 37.7% vs North Florida: 35.8%
Rebounding (L5) +25.5% more
North Florida: 34.0 vs Bellarmine: 27.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 105.0 114
UNF Score 60.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 37.7 50.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.7 / 13.7 24.0 / 22.0
Blocks 1.3 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.9 62.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 77.0 87.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 27.1 29.0 / 23.0
Steals 4.7 / 5.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 9.7 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
UNF
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
BELL
UNF
BELL
ML
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
94% 29-2
ATS
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
94% 29-2
TTL
66% 21-11
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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